From John's Weather Channel FB page:
**** SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO SEA LEVEL IN SOUTHERN TASMANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD SNAP EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH EASTERN AUSTRALIA MONDAY JULY 11TH TIL WEDNESDAY JULY 13TH ****
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WOW! Check this out! The major cold snap that is expected to hit south eastern Australia early next week! Snowfalls almost down to sea level southern Tasmania.
You can clearly see on diagram one the EC/Euro model the broadscale cold air as it moves east towards SE SA, VIC and Tasmania Monday night July 11th.
The second image, the blue line we have pointed out is shown by the ACCESS-G model when this blue line spikes up this far north usually means snow to sea level or close to sea level (100 metres) this model clearly indicates this scenario as do several other models. This is for Tuesday evening July 12th.
Third image: GFS model temperatures, anything in dark Green is showing temps close to 0c just above and anything in blue is sub 0c temps while anything in any shade of green colour is single digits.
If it comes off and we give it 80% chance of happening at this stage.. This is what we expect here at John's Weather Channel.
- Snow down to 100-200 metres northern Tasmania
- Snow possibly down to sea level south western Tasmania.
- Snow down to 300-400 metres in Victoria.
- Snow down to 500 metres NSW highlands.
- Not ruling out sleet or light snow again on Lofty ranges in SA.
- With any cold snap we expect wintry small hail as well as thunder mostly in southern SA, Victoria and Tasmania.
The cold air will push well north in NSW and SE QLD but the timing of the cold air pushing north isn't great with atmosphere starting to dry out so we don't think there be much snow on the NSW central and northern tablelands but we will keep an eye on this if it changes but boy it will be cold.
The series of strong fronts will also cause damaging wind gusts as well as rain.
The series of strong fronts will also cause damaging wind gusts as well as rain.
**** WIND *****
Strong to gale force winds will impact most of southern Australia weekend and into early next week from southern WA through most of SA, VIC, TAS, most of NSW. Some gusts will be damaging especially in southern WA, SE SA, Victoria, southern NSW and Tasmania.
***** RAIN *****
SA: There will also be fair bit of rain with this system before the cold air surges up, most of South Australia away from the North east Pastoral should see decent rainfall widespread 10 to 30mm.
VIC: Best of the falls be in the north east, south west and northern slopes but most the state will see some rain out of this. Parts of the north east could see 30-70mm with spot falls near 100mm about the north east ranges (some of this will eventually fall as snow) between Saturday night July 9th and Wednesday July 13th.
TAS: Northern and western regions will fair best with heavy falls accumulating over northern parts widespread 30-70mm expected with isolated falls close to 100mm. This will cause some headaches with flooding again. Lighter falls in the east and south east.
NSW: The best of the falls will be in the south in particular the southern highlands. General falls of 5 to 20mm mostly west of the divide but the southern highlands may see 50mm+ with some of it falling as snow.
- JWC